Iron Man 3 weekend box office: Second biggest domestic debut ever?
Directed by Shane Black and starring Robert Downey Jr, Iron Man 3 will likely boast the second biggest opening weekend ever at the North American box office — not factoring in inflation. According to studio estimates found at Box Office Mojo,Iron Man 3 grossed $68.31m on Friday, including $15.6m from Thursday evening and midnight screenings. (Photo: Marvel / Disney’s Iron Man 3.)
For comparison’s sake: Joss Whedon’s The Avengers, the previous Marvel movie featuring Robert Downey Jr’s Iron Man, took in $18.7m from midnight screenings alone in May 2012; The Avengers‘ first-day gross was $80.81m. Directed by Jon Favreau, Iron Man 2 earned $7.5m from midnight screeningsin May 2010; its first-day take was $51.23. Note: Iron Man 2 didn’t have theIron Man 3 (or The Avengers) advantage of 3D surcharges, which can boost movie-ticket prices by up to 40%.
If Iron Man 3 performs along the same lines as The Avengers and Iron Man 2, it’ll have grossed $170m in the US/Canada by Sunday evening — or approximately $37m below The Avengers‘ opening-weekend box-office gross and $42m aboveIron Man 2‘s. Once again, remember that The Avengers didn’t have the advantage of Thursday evening screenings, while Iron Man 2 lacked both late Thursday showings and 3D surcharges.
In case Iron Man 3 does indeed open with $170m at the domestic box office, that’ll represent the second biggest debut weekend ever, trailing only The Avengers‘. In case Iron Man 3 opens slightly below expectations, then it runs the risk of landing in the no. 3 slot, right behind David Yates / Daniel Radcliffe’s Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, which collected $168.97m in July 2011.
Iron Man 3 and the box-office inflation factor
If inflation is taken into account, Iron Man 3 will land anywhere between the third and fifth slots — depending on whether or not it earns more than $170m. According to Box Office Mojo, adjusted for inflation Christopher Nolan / Christian Bale’sThe Dark Knight (2008) earned approx. $175m, followed by Sam Raimi / Tobey Maguire’s Spider-Man 3 (2007) with approx. $174m. Note: To have a better idea of actual ticket-sale rankings, 3D surcharges would have to be taken into account — and removed — as well.
But ultimately, the gist of Iron Man 3‘s box-office story will be told outside North America. Internationally, the 3D adventure flick is expected to reach a cume of $480m or whereabouts before the weekend is over. (Of course, the fact that May 1, Labor Day, was a major holiday in most countries surely helped Iron Man 3‘s international box-office grosses this past week.)
And remember, without the international market, movies about American superheroes such as Iron Man 3 would never, ever get made — at least not on this scale.
Iron Man 3‘s official budget is $200m, not including marketing and distribution expenses that could easily add another $100m to the film’s total initial cost.
Official weekend estimates will be released Sunday morning. Iron Man 3‘s weekend box-office actuals come out on Monday. Back in 2010, distributor Paramount had to revise Iron Man 2‘s opening-weekend take downwards by $5.5m.
Iron Man 3 cast
Besides Robert Downey Jr, the Iron Man 3 cast includes 1998 Best Actress Oscar winner Gwyneth Paltrow (Shakespeare in Love), 1982 Best Actor Oscar winner Ben Kingsley (Gandhi), Oscar nominee Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda), Guy Pearce (Mildred Pierce, the upcoming The Rover), Iron Man and Iron Man 2 director Jon Favreau, Rebecca Hall, James Badge Dale, William Sadler, Dale Dickey, the voice of Paul Bettany, and Oscar nominee Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right) in a cameo.
Iron Man 3 is Shane Black’s second movie as a director; his previous effort was Kiss Kiss Bang Bang (2005). Black and Drew Pearce (Pacific Rim, possibly the upcomingSherlock Holmes 3) are credited for the Iron Man 3 screenplay.
Among Black’s screenwriting credits are the Mel Gibson / Danny Glover comedy thriller Lethal Weapon (1987) and its sequels, and two box-office bombs: John McTiernan’s Last Action Hero (1993), starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Renny Harlin’s The Long Kiss Goodnight (1996), with Geena Davis and Samuel L. Jackson.
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